Wednesday, 30 December 2015
Mixed emotions
The big let down was Liverpool only winning by 1-0 so our correct score was down the pan. Along with the small bet on the Spanish game we had at HT. But...... We won on our Hearts game and returned £19.10. Combine that with the £10 we had left and we still have a nice £29.10 In the pot. Not to bad considering how many bets we had tonight.
I think that is it until next year, which is only 24 hrs away now. Then we have a massive football fixture list to plunge through and try and seek out some value during the day.
I shall wish anyone who stumbles across this blog a Happy New Year and May next year treat you nicely!!!
A quickie.
Just backed Hearts v Dundee Utd for an inplay bet on Hearts to win at 1.91 for £10.
It's 3rd v bottom of the table, so should be straightforward.
Famous last words I know.
30 Dec 2015 - Hearts v Dundee Utd - Match Betting Live
Hearts @ 1.91
Stake:£10.00
Estimated Returns:£19.09
Transaction Reference:O/15104457/0000017/F
Also just a small punt on
30 Dec 2015 - Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna - Match Betting Live
Deportivo La Coruna @ 3.60
Stake : £2.50
Estimated Returns : £9.00
Transaction Reference:O/15104457/0000018/F
Winner winner Chicken dinner
Ker-Ching..... Need I say anymore.....
So that was nice and easy and a good price as well. We now have our biggest kitty to date and a change of tatic I feel. Because we have more than just double I feel we can bet some of it instead of all of it for our next bet. Yes I could grab a £10 promo with a £20 bet, but I've seen odds on another site which I quite like the look of.
So the next bet will involve correct score betting. This could go two ways.... One is Liverpool beat Sunderland like they should do on paper and that brings the correct score odds into play. Or they find it hard to get past a stubborn defensive team Sunderland can sometimes be. However.... Sunderland are in the relegation places and are there for a reason.
So my bet involves splitting £10 4 ways which is of course £2.50 per bet. The bets will be on the correct score on this game and will be 4-0, 4-1 to Liverpool or 5-0, 5-1 to Liverpool. The latter being over 100/1 each on both.
I will just place the bets on now, but for you reading it will be instant 😐
Sunderland v Liverpool
1 - 5 - Correct Score 2 Away
Betfair Bet ID 1:60039117637 | Matched: 30-Dec-15 17:05:54
Odds of 110.00
Stake of £2.50
--
To return £272.50.
Sunderland v Liverpool
0 - 5 - Correct Score 2 Away
Betfair Bet ID 1:60039111074 | Matched: 30-Dec-15 17:05:43
Odds of 100.00
Stake of £2.50
--
To return £247.50
Sunderland v Liverpool
1 - 4 - Correct Score 2 Away
Betfair Bet ID 1:60039104523 | Matched: 30-Dec-15 17:05:33
Odds of 40.70
Stake of £2.50
--
To return £99.26
Sunderland v Liverpool
0 - 4 - Correct Score 2 Away
Betfair Bet ID 1:60039095999 | Matched: 30-Dec-15 17:05:20
Odds of 36.00
Stake of £2.50
--
To return £87.50
So that's it, it's all on and just less than 3 hrs before kick off. I did check the odds on my main site of William Hill but the odds are far greater on Betfair. Just an example, the odds for 4-0 on Hills are 26/1 and we got 36/1. The 5-0 score line on Hills is just 66/1 and on Betfair it's 100/1.
The best thing here is regardless of the outcome we still have some left even if we lose. But I must stick to those rules and not have multiple teams for trebles or doubles. It's got to be singles all the way.
Ok food time and once again thanks for reading. If you like the idea or just enjoy reading this, please drop me a comment in the comment section or if you have any ideas that might help this challenge again please drop me a comment.
Plaza
Just seen a promo
For tonight's game, which is a free £10 bet Inplay bet if you bet £20 pre match on the Liverpool v Sunderland game.
So had a quick scout round and picked a game already playing and is currently 0-0 @ HT. It's not a case of closing my eyes and going that one though. I have done a little revision on the game so far and it's a tight affair with just 1 shot each on target thus far. But the away team are a team who should be beating teams like Levante who are bottom of the Spanish League. So I've gone for a Malaga win and to win to Nil with good odds of 3.25. Hopefully this will give me the £20 to bet with on the promo.
30 Dec 2015 - Levante v Malaga - Malaga To Win To Nil Live
Yes @ 3.25
Stake:£10.00
Estimated Returns:£32.50
Transaction Reference:O/15104457/0000016/F
Tuesday, 29 December 2015
Oh nooooo not again...
I'm afraid so.... Same story as the Palace game... Battered them but could not find the winning goal. Again it was a draw, but again it's a fail.
I would of lost whichever I chose on tonight's fixtures. I thought the games on offer had value, lots of it Infact but to no avail. In other words they lost as well...
So it's back to the drawing board once again. At least I'm getting some great experience while trying to hit that first barrier of £100. I could be trying to hard some might say, which is of course so true, but with the xmas holidays there are bundles of games being played and value in my opinion as well.
I'm quite tired tonight, so I will look at tomorrow's fixtures when I'm more compass mentuss.
Thanks for reading
Plaza
We are in play
Was just pottering about when I see a good opportunity in play. So I went with it and backed Cardiff at odds of 2.15 to beat Nottingham Forrest at home.
The total stake was £23, which with my bad Maths is almost £50 if and when the final whistle goes.
29 Dec 2015 - Cardiff v Nottingham Forest - Match Betting Live
Cardiff @ 2.15
Stake:£23.00
Estimated Returns:£49.45
Transaction Reference:O/15104457/0000015/F
Monday, 28 December 2015
Confused. Com
I made a bit of a cock up in my last post....
I was 100% certain my other bet which I referred to was Arsenal to win, but after checking back I realised it was actually Middlesbrough and not Arsenal. It didn't matter in the end, well it did because I won more.....
Yes, we have another winner and good odds as well at 2.30 instead of the Boro game at 1.66. So instead of picking up £16.66 we pick up £23.00.
I was quite pleased with the result and now puts us in the driving seat again. I still stand by picking games that are more 'likely' to win than odds against that are harder to predict. I have not looked at tomorrow's games yet, but no rush. Just chuffed to get the cash back after our friends could not beat a Swansea side...
Bore 0-0 draw.....
They huffed
They puffed
They did everything
But didn't score...
So although we crashed and burned I'm happy overall that at least Palace did not lose. So yes it means we are BRB!
But out of the Flames came the Phonix and I'm sure I will crack the £100 real soon. Of course the beauty of going BRB is I simply load up another £10 and pick something else. So because I was undecided last night and the latter of those two games starts in 20 minutes and not at the same time as the Palace game I can now back Arsenal to win.
I know the odds are poop, but maybe I need to reign it in a bit and not go for the odds against while trying to break the first barrier. So that's it, next bet is £10 on Arsenal to win with -1 goal @ odds of 2.30.
It was just going to be on the win but having just checked the odds it's now below my minimum price of 1.50 but I'm confident Arsenal will win comfortably. Famous last words I know.....
Ave it!
28 Dec 2015 - Arsenal v Bournemouth - Match Handicap -1 Goal
Arsenal -1 goal @ 2.30
Stake:£10.00
Estimated Returns:£23.00
Transaction Reference:O/15104457/0000014/F
Total Stake:£10.00
Sunday, 27 December 2015
There was no bet today but....
I thought long and hard about backing Celtic in play away at Hearts. But I wasn't really interested although I did check out all the I play stats.
Of course Celtic were massive odds on and it looked like a cert to be honest. But this is not about taking a punt everyday and trying to do this like there is no tomorrow. No sir! It's about stepping back once in a while and this was what I did. I did check the result later on today and Celtic did score first to make it 1-0 but Hearts came back to make it 1-1 before Celtic scored again in the 83rd minute and that should of been game over and Plaza would of been gutted for not going with Celtic. But you can probably tell, that I Plaza was pleased with myself to see Hearts had scored in added time to snatch a point to make it 2-2.
Celtic do not drop points period when playing league games regardless of home or away and this result was certainly good for the Bookmaker.....
In all honesty I'm not a huge fan of backing an away side unless they are playing a crap side and in my opinion Newcastle yesterday are that crap side.
But I have spent some time pre blog to size up the games for tomorrow. Crystal Palace at home v Swansea who sacked there long term player then manager can not be good for confidence. To be honest I nearly plumbed for Middlesbrough at home to Sheffield Wednesday, but there price of 1.66 put me off. I told you I like value and Palace are odds against to beat Swansea so I will be wagering my total of just over £21 to return somewhere in the low £40's. I will of course post my receipt once I put my bet on.
So that's my selection and now time to turn in.
28 Dec 15
12:31
lost
Single:
Stake: 21.50 - Returns: 0.00
Crystal Palace v Swansea - Match Betting
Crystal Palace @ 2.10
Go on the Toffee's...
They could of scored a little sooner rather than leaving it to virtually the last kick of the game, but I guess none of that matters if you see the score line on the TV. You'd think 1-0 away for Everton. Probably predicted by most, but who put there money were the mouth is hey???
It may of been the last kick of the game, or the first attack of the game. The simple thing is I won whichever way you look at it and I've bagged my first winner... So the BR is now £21.50 and if your good at maths that puts us up £1.50 overall. But this is just the beginning and all could be lost on the next game. Of course I'll try not to let that happen, but until I get to the first milestone of £100 I'm always in danger of the dreaded BRB. No it doesn't mean I'll be right back..... But, Bankroll Busted...
I have nothing planned for the next bet just yet, but if your following my updates I'll try and give as much notice as I can. Also if anyone is thinking of copying my bets and would like instant updates, then send me your interest in the feedback on this blog and I will set up some sort of instant messaging service to anyone interested.
Of course this is still very very early and my last challenge lasted 4 1/2 years, so this is not just a quick fix because I need the £25k. It's to prove given the right mindset it Can be done like I mentioned previously. But while I'm on the subject, just a little footnote about what I can and can't do in more detail.
My bet can be on anything. Any sport, any event it doesn't matter. I like live markets that are in play. You can win a lot of points in the right place at the right time. Just an example from this afternoons top football games. Liverpool were battering Leicester at home but at half time the game was still goalless. The odds on Liverpool had lengthened and by the time they scored they were almost 4/1, even if you backed Liverpool at HT you were getting much better odds than at the start of the game. So that's what I mean about in play betting.
I can also lay bets as well and chance my arm at being a bookmaker via Betfair instead of a punter. But you have to be careful going down that road. It's not just about my bet losing and saying goodbye to a tenner, no sir, but laying bets regardless of the sport can cost you a lot more than £10. Another example taken from today's football was Chelsea v Watford. Chelsea were massive odds on and were expected to easily dispose of Watford. So if I thought that and decided to lay the draw for £10 in this game, I don't just lose £10, I lose £50 in total because the draw was 4/1 before they kicked off. An yes it can work the other way for you, but would you of laid Chelsea at a price of 1.50 or 1/2 on...... It's going to lose more times than it wins so long term it's a bad idea.
I will of course write down all my bets on this blog before they kick off so you can and I for that matter know I'm not cheating. Once I get into the swing again of blogging I will tidy up this blog and take regular snapshots of my Account to prove all the figures are true.
Speaking of accounts, there might be some swopping of funds from one bookmaker to another on the off chance I might be asked to leave a certain bookmaker because I'm winning too much and often. They are well within there rights to do so as well which is a bummer, but I'll cross that bridge when it arises. I could also move my account cash to another bookmaker to take advantage of any promotions that may come my way. But to start off with, I'm currently with William Hills. They are one of two British bookmakers that have a maximum payout of £2 million. So considering the above about winning to much I stand a much better chance of slipping under the radar so to speak and certainly not like Skybet who have a top payout of just £250k. I wonder how many punters know Skybets top payout.....
Anyway, it's getting late for me and I need my bed now.
Thanks for reading.
Saturday, 26 December 2015
So it begins
After successfully completing my $0 to $10k poker challenge some 4 years ago now, I have decided it's time to try again in a different format.
Although slightly different than my previous challenge, I will be incorporating some of the same rules. So what is it?
This time, I plan to turn £10 into £25k using Bankroll Management ( BRM ) and prove if you have the correct mindset and discipline you can actually beat the bookie..
Ok, the rules.
To get up and running, the first part will be placing single bets only until I break the £100. After achieving that, I will then risk no more than 10% of my Bankroll. Again this is only until I break the £1k.
Once I break the £1000 I can then risk no more than 5% of my Bankroll. This will remain in place until I break the £5k. Once I break that £5k I will then only risk 2% of my Bankroll up to £15k. The final risk will be 1% after the £15k and that will be all the way to £25k.
The journey starts today and there is no rush to do this in any certain length of time. I also will not bet if nothing catches my eye. I'm looking for value but the minimum odds I can accept are 1.50 (1/2). No multi bets are allowed, but placing a series of bets on the same market is allowed but only to a maximum of 4 singles. For instance correct score betting, ( 0-0, 1-1, 3-1, 2-1 ) and the total bet must not exceed the percentage we are currently on. Any sport is supported.
The first bet is today 26/12/15 3pm and is....
Swindon @ 2.70 Match Betting
Swindon v Gillingham
Stake:£10.00 To Return:£27.00
So ok I might of rushed a bit......
I personally thought there was good value in backing Swindon at home v Gillingham.
Swindon in a rich vain of form while Gillingham have struggled away recently. With 20 minutes to go though it looks like we bombed on our first bet. Swindon did score first but was not in front for long though, just 90 seconds actually!
People who read my poker challenge know the start is the toughest. I'm not saying every single bet I make will win, but keeping within the limits, you have a much better chance of succeeding.
My next bet will be Everton away at Newcastle in about 45 minutes time.
Although Newcastle have won there last 2 games they were my bet at the start of the season to Go down. But you will see I do not go for massive odds on, instead I like value and Everton I believe are good value.
26 Dec 2015 - Newcastle v Everton - Match Betting
Everton @ 2.15
Stake:£10.00
Estimated Returns:£21.50
Transaction Reference:O/15104457/0000012/F
Total Stake:£10.00
So here we go, let's get off the mark now.....
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